The Week Ahead: Inflation Drops Below 30%, All Eyes on US CPI and the S&P Decision

Good Sunday to everyone,

For a Borsa Istanbul that had been defined by crisis for three weeks, the week just gone was one of catching breath; but the real story was not in the market, it was in the inflation data. September CPI, published by TurkStat on Monday, rose 1.84% on the month — well below both the 2.18% market consensus and August's 2.04%; annual inflation fell from 31.51% to 29.73% and slipped below 30% for the first time since December 2021. Producer prices were also moderate at 2.07% monthly and 27.38% annually. The data is explained by an 8.9% fall in fresh fruit and vegetable prices pulling food negative on the month; against that, transport rose 2.79%, housing 2.71% and energy 6.25% — the cost channel from the diesel crisis has not closed, food simply masked it this month. CBRT Governor Karahan told parliament's Plan and Budget Committee on Tuesday that the underlying trend in inflation had fallen to an annualised 23.7%, kept the phrase "a tight stance until price stability is achieved" and added that they did not expect "systemic risk" in the fund market. The market read the combination clearly: in ForInvest's Friday survey, 15 of 22 participants expect a 100 basis point cut at the 22 October rate meeting; Citi, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and BofA share that view, while Goldman Sachs expects no change, calling it "too early for a cut." The BIST 100 rose 1.42% to 12,444 on Monday, fell 2.03% to 12,123 on Wednesday as oil cleared $100 and Middle East headlines landed, then closed at 12,265.98 after two positive days on Thursday and Friday: a weekly change of -0.03%. For an index that lost 15% in three weeks, a flat close is a sign of stability; but the leasing and factoring shares at the epicentre of the fund crisis kept falling 5-7% every day, the holding index closed the week lower, and USD/TRY rose 0.63% to 49.34, making the currency the week's best performer.

Abroad, the direction ran opposite to Türkiye this time. The Fed's September minutes, published on Wednesday evening, showed the 25 basis point hike was taken unanimously and that "most participants" foresaw one more hike by year end; Waller said at a CBRT forum in Istanbul on Thursday that he "expects additional hikes," and Musalem said rates "should rise over the next 6-9 months." The US 10-year yield touched 5.364% intraday on Wednesday, its highest since April 2002; but strong demand at the 10- and 30-year auctions let long-term yields close the week at 5.24% and 5.60%, slightly below the previous week. Equities set records despite that noise: the S&P 500 posted its highest-ever close at 7,818.93 on Tuesday — the first record on a day with the 10-year above 5% since July 2007. The week ended up 1.15% at 7,811.54; the Nasdaq recorded a fourth straight weekly gain at 0.64%, while the Russell 2000 fell 0.92%. On Thursday, a report that OpenAI's annualised revenue was $20 billion below what had been signalled pushed the semiconductor index down 3.4%; the Mag-7 recovered on Friday. The week's single most striking move was in telecoms: SpaceX's purchase of 800 MHz of spectrum for Starlink Mobile drove T-Mobile down 13% and AT&T and Verizon down more than 10%. The calendar is busy this week: US CPI on Wednesday, big bank earnings from Tuesday, S&P's Türkiye decision and Fed Chair Warsh's Bangkok appearance on Friday; at home, the balance of payments on Tuesday, the committee hearing on the fund liquidation bill on Wednesday and the last survey of market participants before the rate meeting on Friday.

Macroeconomics · Geopolitics · Global

1 The inflation surprise cracked open the door to a rate cut. September CPI at 1.84% on the month came in below even the 1.90-2.60% forecast range of 20 economists; annual inflation was 29.73% and the core C index 28.70% annually. The composition matters: food gave its weakest reading of 2026 at -0.20% monthly, while education rose 14.19%, clothing 4.01% and energy 6.25%, with transport alone contributing 0.49 points. More than half of the headline decline, in other words, is a seasonal food effect; the cost pressure from diesel and fuel is still in the pipeline. The CBRT's Tuesday Price Developments report confirmed the underlying trend had eased, and Karahan stressed that credit growth was around 25% and that the policy rate at 37% remained tight. This leaves two scenarios for the 22 October meeting: the 100 basis point cut most economists expect, or the hold Goldman forecasts, driven by the financial stability concerns and reserve losses the fund crisis has created. Friday's Survey of Market Participants median will be the last measure of how the market weights those two scenarios before 22 October.

2 Reserves fell for a sixth week, and the currency became the "winner". The CBRT's data for the week of 2 October showed gross reserves down another $3.8 billion at $167.4 billion; that is the lowest since the week of 31 July, and the total loss from $188.4 billion on 21 August now exceeds $21 billion. Net reserves held almost flat at $53.8 billion, while net reserves excluding swaps fell $2 billion to $37.9 billion. In the same week foreign investors were net sellers of $190 million of equities and $485 million of domestic government bonds — a third straight selling week in bonds, with cumulative three-week outflows above $1 billion; on the eurobond side there was $929 million of buying. Residents' FX deposits rose $851 million adjusted for parity effects, and money market funds have shrunk 29% since the end of August. USD/TRY closed the week 0.63% higher at 49.34 and EUR/TRY 0.39% lower at 55.25 on the cross rate. In bonds the two-year benchmark closed Thursday at 39.75% and the 10-year at 35.52%; Monday's two-year Treasury auction cleared at a compound 39.87%. The Treasury ran a 467.2 billion lira cash deficit in September, taking the January-September cumulative deficit close to 1.87 trillion lira. Thursday's data for the week of 9 October will show whether foreign selling of domestic bonds stopped after the inflation surprise — a return to buying in a week when a rate cut is being priced would be the strongest support signal before the meeting.

3 The Fed minutes were hawkish, but the market reads a "slow cycle". The minutes of the 15-16 September meeting showed the hike to 3.75-4.00% passed unanimously, 12-0, that "most participants" foresaw one more hike by year end, and that inflation risks were seen as "skewed to the upside" because of energy, the effect of AI investment on goods prices and tariffs; against that, the committee stressed it would stay "meeting by meeting" and "open-minded." Waller's Istanbul speech summed up the balance: "if the data comes in as expected I expect additional hikes, but they do not have to come at consecutive meetings." Musalem was more hawkish, and Schmid said rising long-term yields were hitting commercial real estate; Williams, Bowman and Logan made no policy comments this week. Pricing moved accordingly: the probability of a hike at the October meeting sits at 16-19%, and the probability of at least one hike by December at 75-84%. The data was mixed: the ISM services index came in near consensus at 54.9 while its prices sub-index rose to 74.0, its highest since July 2022; the August trade deficit was the widest since March 2025 at $105.6 billion (record AI chip and crude oil imports); weekly jobless claims at 197,000 were near 57-year lows; and preliminary October Michigan consumer sentiment at 46.3 approached May's record low, with one-year inflation expectations rising to 4.7%. Wednesday's CPI is where that balance is tested: an energy-driven 0.6% monthly rise is expected, and what matters is whether core holds at 0.2%.

4 Bonds: the highest yields since 2002, but the auctions saved the day. The US 10-year yield closed Monday at 5.311%, its highest close since April 2002, and rose as far as 5.364% intraday on Wednesday; the 30-year saw a 24-year high of 5.67% on Monday. The turn came from the auctions: strong demand at Wednesday's $39 billion 10-year and Thursday's $22 billion 30-year sale (the 30-year cleared at 5.618%) pulled the long end down; the 10-year ended the week at 5.24%, the 30-year at 5.60% and the two-year at 4.80% — all 2-3 basis points below the previous week. The dollar index ended the week around 102.2, close to an 18-month high. For emerging markets this cuts both ways: a US long-term yield above 5% remains a structural obstacle to flows into lira assets, but strong auction demand has, for now, shelved the "the bond market is getting out of control" scenario. The DAAD ETF engine's Thursday buy signals in long-dated Treasury ETFs such as TLT, VGLT, EDV and SPTL suggest the model also sees an oversold bounce at the long end. There are no coupon auctions this week; the bond market is closed Monday for Columbus Day, and Wednesday's Treasury 10-20 year buyback announcement and the CPI print will set the long end's direction.

5 Oil: Hormuz, a hurricane and Riyadh at the weekend. Brent closed the week up 2.41% at $104.72 and WTI up 0.81% at $91.85; the EIA raised its fourth-quarter Brent forecast by $14 to $105 in its October STEO. Three separate channels were at work during the week: at least 12 tanker attacks occurred in Hormuz between 28 September and 2 October, crude transits fell 27% from their wartime peak to 10.1 million barrels a day, and Iran loaded zero crude in September for the first time since Kpler records began; Hurricane Isaias temporarily shut in 63% of Gulf of Mexico oil output (1.3 million barrels a day); and the US Treasury sanctioned 17 vessels carrying Iranian oil. Trump's Thursday statement that there would be "no strike on Iran before the midterms, but the blockade continues at full strength," together with the diesel agreement reached with Putin (300,000 tons immediately, 500,000 tons in November, then 1 million tons a month), braked prices on Friday. On the diesel side the G7's release of 100 million barrels of stocks worked: US diesel fell 18 cents to $6.20, China reopened its October export quotas and Trump dropped the export ban; Russia's diesel ban runs to 31 October. Two new headlines landed over the weekend: on Saturday a Houthi attack on Riyadh airport killed 12 and wounded more than 300 — the heaviest attack on the kingdom in a decade — and on Sunday Trump said an "energy ceasefire" was in force between Russia and Ukraine, though neither Kyiv nor Moscow confirmed it. Monday's open will price both. Fuel prices in Türkiye had a mixed week: a 4.90 lira cut in diesel on Tuesday, a 0.96 lira cut in petrol on Saturday and a roughly 6.50 lira increase in diesel.

6 Gold rebounded from oversold, silver flat. After touching a two-month low on Wednesday, spot gold rose 1.5% on Friday to close at $4,194 as a strong 30-year auction pulled long-term yields down and the dollar eased; the weekly gain was roughly 1.3%, with the December contract at $4,216. The technical picture we noted last week as "RSI 28, oversold" delivered the expected bounce this week, but the price is still 25% below January's record of $5,608 and well below the 200-day moving average ($4,416). Silver fell as far as $58.50 on Thursday after Waller's rate comments, then recovered 2.8% on Friday to finish the week flat at $60.80. Central bank demand is supportive: the People's Bank of China bought 21 tons in September, its largest monthly purchase in a 23-month buying run, for a year-to-date total of 103 tons. Gold ETFs took in $31 billion in the third quarter. Domestically, gram gold closed the week up 0.48% at 6,645 lira; the rise in the currency supported the lira-based return. Wednesday's US CPI is the week's only decisive data point for gold: a stronger-than-expected core would put the $4,000 support back in play, while a soft print could extend the recovery towards $4,300.

7 Bitcoin resolved its compression to the downside. After rising as far as $86.6K on Monday, Bitcoin fell to $80.4K on Wednesday's hawkish Fed minutes and Thursday's Waller comments; it closed Friday between $82.6K and $83.1K. The drop from the intraweek high to the close was 4.5%, 2.3% on a Friday-to-Friday basis, and -3.98% on the weekly model data (11 October, $83,086). Last week we wrote that it had been "compressed in the 82,814-87,396 band for two weeks"; this week the 82,814 support broke on a closing basis on Thursday and the short-term downside scenario was triggered, but the price climbed back to the band's lower edge on Friday. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $681 million of weekly outflows, ending a three-week run of inflows; $485 million left on Wednesday alone. Ethereum closed the week down 6.8% at $2,504 and Solana down 8.1%; Bitcoin dominance rose to 59.1%. The Fear and Greed index fell from 72 to 61 but remains in "greed" territory. In the comparison data Bitcoin trailed both gold (+1.4%) and SPY (+1.2%) on the week, with a one-year return of -25%; the three-month return of +33% keeps the recovery narrative alive. October seasonality (an average of +16%) has not worked so far this year; the DAAD Crypto engine's weekend buy signals in altcoins such as Arbitrum, Aptos and POL show the model reading the decline as a mean-reversion opportunity. Token unlocks for Aptos (Monday), Starknet (Thursday) and Arbitrum (Friday) could add supply pressure this week.

8 Global tightening spreads, with surprises from Brazil and India. The account of the ECB's September meeting, published on Thursday, showed the hike to 2.50% was unanimous, that all members saw inflation risks to the upside, and that the bank avoided guidance by describing the step as "neither part of a predetermined cycle nor the last hike"; the market prices a 20% chance of a hike in October and 75% by December. The Reserve Bank of India raised rates for the first time in three years on Wednesday, taking the repo rate to 5.50% and shifting its stance to "calibrated tightening." In Germany, August factory orders fell 10.6% after July's doubling, while industrial production rose 2.0% for its best monthly performance in 18 months; the euro area composite PMI hit a 41-month high of 53.1. In Brazil's first round on 4 October, Flávio Bolsonaro led Lula by 47.0% to 45.2% and a 25 October runoff was confirmed; the Ibovespa rose 7.7% on Monday, its sharpest daily gain since March 2020, and the real appreciated 4.1%. Chinese markets opened weak after the Golden Week holiday: the Shanghai index closed the week down 0.74% at 3,814 and holiday spending per capita fell to a four-year low, though the CSI manufacturing PMI beat expectations at 52.1. In Japan the yen closed a fourth straight week lower at 158.2, with 160 watched as the intervention threshold. This week brings the IMF–World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok (the WEO on Tuesday), G20 finance ministers and the EU Leaders' Summit on Thursday; China's third-quarter growth follows on Monday 19 October.

Sectors

1 Banking: it took the inflation rally early and gave the week back. The banking index opened the week as the strongest group, up 2.82% on Monday — the inflation surprise fed expectations of a rate cut, and those expectations fed the thesis that bank margins would recover. After a further 0.66% gain on Tuesday it was flat on Wednesday, then fell 1.54% on Thursday and 0.26% on Friday; on single-source data it closed with a weekly gain of roughly 1.7%, ahead of the index. Garanti BBVA's 100 billion lira asset-backed securities issue and the agreement to transfer Ziraat Katılım and Halk Katılım to the Türkiye Wealth Fund were the week's corporate news. The fund crisis continues to concentrate not in the banking system but in the other arms of the financial sector: a TMSF trustee was appointed to Destek Finans Faktoring on Wednesday and the leasing and factoring index fell 5-7% every day for five days. In the third-quarter bank results starting at the end of October, provisioning ratios on loans extended to portfolio management companies and related groups will be watched, and after the rate meeting, how quickly deposit rates respond to a cut.

2 Industry: production in its sharpest contraction in seven months. August industrial production, published by TurkStat on Friday, fell 1.9% year on year calendar-adjusted and 1.0% month on month seasonally and calendar-adjusted; manufacturing contracted 2.5% annually and 1.6% monthly, while mining and energy rose modestly. This means July's 0.3% annual decline has deepened and that the contraction we flagged last week when the PMI fell to 47.9 has now shown up in official data. Part of the reason inflation fell below 30% lies in this demand weakness; it is also the industrial-side argument in the rate cut debate. The BIST Industrials index closed the week roughly flat at around 0.2%, with Thursday's 1.75% rise the only clear move. The industrial side is fragile in the US too: the ISM services price index rising to 74 shows input costs persisting, and Caterpillar's 5.7% fall on Wednesday, which dragged the Dow lower on its own, shows the effect of high rates on capital goods. US September industrial production is published on Friday (16:15 Türkiye time).

3 Technology: the AI revenue debate and a spectrum shock in telecoms. The week's two sectoral breaks both came from the US. On Thursday, the Financial Times' report that OpenAI's annualised revenue (roughly $50 billion) was $20 billion below what had been signalled pushed the semiconductor index down 3.4%: Micron fell 4.8%, Broadcom 4.4%, Oracle 5.5% and Nvidia 2.9%; SoftBank fell 3.9% in Tokyo on Friday. Against that, TSMC's September revenue rose 54.6% year on year to NT$511.9 billion, and Thursday's third-quarter results (09:00 Türkiye time) will be the most concrete test of whether AI demand is turning into real money; ASML will answer the same question from the equipment side on Wednesday. In telecoms, SpaceX's purchase on Friday of nationwide 800 MHz spectrum for Starlink Mobile for roughly $8 billion drove T-Mobile down 13.3%, AT&T 10.8% and Verizon 10.1%; tower companies rose (Crown Castle +15.6%) and Deutsche Telekom fell 7-8% in Frankfurt. The model's buy signal this week for SQQQ (the inverse Nasdaq ETF) is the technical reflection of a cautious short-term read on technology; for Alphabet, three asset-based buy signals were generated.

4 Defensives and commodities: energy and utilities led. The best US sectors on the week were utilities (+3.97%), consumer staples (+3.60%) and energy (+3.60); technology (-0.52%) and industrials (-0.41%) lagged. Constellation Energy's 20-year, 890 MW nuclear agreement with Google lifted the stock 12-15% and showed the AI energy demand theme is still alive. Copper approached its September record at $14,540 a ton on the LME (up 2% on the week), with the Chinese import demand gauge at a four-year high. European natural gas (TTF) rose 4% to €80/MWh; warnings that storage could fall below 30% by the end of winter, combined with Qatari LNG flows and Hormuz uncertainty, supported the price. Wheat fell 1.8% on Friday after the WASDE report revised US stocks higher. Domestically, buyback programmes reached 1.5 billion lira for the week, and CVK Maden announced a new programme. Oil approaching $105 remains the most concrete external risk to the durability of Türkiye's inflation surprise.

Companies

1 The fund investigation: a trustee, a 187 billion lira list and a bill. The week brought three new links in the chain. On Wednesday a TMSF trustee was appointed to Destek Finans Faktoring; on Friday Justice Minister Gürlek announced that 214 people and institutions who exited three funds before the collapse had made total gains of 187.65 billion lira, that the list had been passed to the TMSF and that restitution notices had begun; six people's assets were seized the same day. On the institutional side, the bill regulating fund liquidation was submitted to parliament and will be debated in the Plan and Budget Committee on Wednesday; a request for permission to investigate the former CMB chairman also came onto the agenda. The interim payments of up to 1 million lira in the Tera, Pusula, Atlas and Hedef funds, expected last week, have not yet begun and no date has been announced; against that, Şimşek said liquidation payments had been transferred to 43,643 investors in 17 funds belonging to A1 Capital, Bulls and Pardus (out of a total of 131 funds and 455,578 investors). The CMB filed criminal complaints against 21 people over ODINE transactions and imposed two-year trading bans; the number of shares under VBTS measures fell from 40 to 10 — the most concrete regulatory-side indicator of market normalisation. If Wednesday's committee session clarifies the payment timetable, the funding structure and the definition of an affected investor, it will give concrete ground to the recovery attempt we asked about last week: a base, or an interim bounce?

2 The US earnings season: banks reckon with 5% rates. JPMorgan (consensus $5.90 earnings per share and $26.9 billion of net interest income), Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson, UnitedHealth and Domino's report on Tuesday; Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and ASML on Wednesday; TSMC, Schwab, US Bancorp and PNC on Thursday; and Travelers and the regional banks on Friday. According to FactSet, third-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth is expected at 29.5% year on year — 65% in technology, 114% in energy, but only 3% in financials. There are two questions for the banks: the unrealised losses that long-term yields above 5% have created in securities portfolios, and commercial real estate provisions. The options market prices a 7% move for UnitedHealth. Last week's results sent mixed messages: PepsiCo beat on revenue but cut its full-year profit growth forecast to 2.5-3.5% and announced price cuts of up to 15% on Lay's and Doritos — confirming the inflation-weary consumer thesis; Delta cut its annual profit forecast from $6.50-7.50 to $5.10-5.60 as fuel costs rose 62%, despite record revenue; Constellation Brands raised its forecast despite falling beer volumes. Domestically, the first big name in the third-quarter calendar is Ereğli Demir Çelik, on Monday 19 October.

3 Exchange filings: Aselsan, Turkish Airlines, Vakıf GYO and the dividend calendar. The week's notable announcements were Aselsan's new $125 million contract, Turkish Airlines carrying 9.0 million passengers in September (up 3.6%), Vakıf GYO's application for a 270% bonus capital increase, and share buybacks by Orzaks and Ekim Turizm. JCR downgraded Biotrend Enerji and Birleşim Mühendislik. The week's biggest BIST gainers were Polisan Holding (+12.0%), İskenderun Demir Çelik (+8.1%) and CVK Maden (+8.1%); the biggest losers were Bera Holding (-9.8%), Borusan Yatırım (-7.8%) and Astor Enerji (-7.1%). On dividends, Anadolu Efes, Sun Tekstil, Tera Yatırım and Kuzey Boru paid this week; next week Gübre Fabrikaları distributes a gross 4.4910 lira (14 October ex-date, 16 October payment), Astor Enerji a net 1.8625 lira and Ebebek a net 0.5313 lira (15 October).

4 The IPO market is effectively closed. The CMB has approved no new IPO since 3 September; the only approved and pending offering is Bewen Enerji, with no date. Of the 36 shares listed in 2026, 23 trade below their offer price. There is no book-building, index change or market holiday this week; the fourth-quarter index changes took effect on 1 October (Türk Metal entered the BIST 30, Destek Finans left). The reopening of the IPO calendar remains, as we noted last week, a delayed but reliable indicator of market normalisation; as long as the CMB's agenda is full of the fund liquidation law, it looks unlikely to reopen in October.

The Week Ahead: CPI Wednesday and S&P Friday

For Türkiye the week ahead is the last straight stretch on the road to the 22 October rate meeting; for the US it is the week of the data that will set the pace of the hiking cycle. The domestic calendar is relatively quiet but carries a headline every day: August retail sales on Monday, the August balance of payments on Tuesday (the AA Finans consensus is a $3.5 billion current account surplus — the peak of the tourism season), the Plan and Budget Committee hearing on the fund liquidation bill on Wednesday, the September budget plus the CBRT's weekly reserve and foreign flow data on Thursday, and September housing sales and the last Survey of Market Participants before the rate meeting on Friday. Türkiye's most critical moment comes on Friday evening: S&P Global Ratings' review of Türkiye (BB-/stable) will be published after the market close. The S&P analyst said on 2 October that the fund crisis put no pressure on the rating if it stayed isolated, so the market expects an affirmation — but how the outlook language addresses the fund crisis, the reserve losses and disinflation will be an important reference for foreign investors before 22 October. Fitch and Moody's have no scheduled reviews before year-end; Scope follows on 23 October and Capital Intelligence on 13 November. Abroad, Wednesday's US September CPI at 15:30 Türkiye time is the week's only decisive release: the consensus is 0.6% monthly and 3.6% annually (previous 3.4%), with core at 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually. The energy-driven headline rise is already priced; if the surprise comes in core, the probability of a December hike rises above the current 75-84% and bond yields test 5.3% again. Thursday's PPI and retail sales, and Friday's conversation between Fed Chair Warsh and IMF Managing Director Georgieva in Bangkok at 06:30 Türkiye time, complete the week; it will be Warsh's first public comment after the CPI. The US bond market is closed Monday for Columbus Day while the stock market is open, and EIA oil inventory data shifts to Thursday. The IMF–World Bank meetings in Bangkok, plus G20 finance ministers and the EU Leaders' Summit on Thursday, form the week's diplomatic backdrop. There is no US government shutdown risk; the stopgap budget runs to 11 December and Congress is in recess until the midterms.

The Week's Calendar

Monday 12 October — TurkStat August retail sales volume index (10:00; previous +10.4% annually). US Columbus Day: the bond market is closed, the stock market open; no data. The Fed's Hammack speaks (19:10 Türkiye time). The IMF–World Bank annual meetings open in Bangkok (12-18 October). China September credit and monetary aggregates. EU Foreign Affairs Council (Ukraine, Middle East). LVMH earnings. Aptos token unlock. The Riyadh attack and the claimed "energy ceasefire" will be priced into oil for the first time.

Tuesday 13 October — CBRT August balance of payments (10:00; AA Finans consensus +$3.50 billion). US NFIB small business optimism (13:00 Türkiye time) and the September federal budget balance (21:00). The Fed's Waller (10:45), Barkin (20:00) and Collins (23:00) speak. IMF World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report (05:00 Türkiye time). OPEC monthly oil market report. Germany final CPI (3.3%). Earnings: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson, UnitedHealth, Domino's.

Wednesday 14 October — US September CPI (15:30 Türkiye time; consensus 0.6% monthly, 3.6% annually; core 0.2% monthly, 2.5% annually). Fed Beige Book (21:00). The Fed's Bowman (12:40) and Barkin speak. US Treasury 10-20 year buyback announcement. At home, the fund liquidation bill goes to parliament's Plan and Budget Committee. ECB President Lagarde (11:30). China September CPI (consensus around 1.0%), PPI and trade. IEA monthly oil report (11:00). IMF Fiscal Monitor. API oil inventories (shifted because of the holiday). Gübre Fabrikaları dividend ex-date. Earnings: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, ASML, Progressive, State Street.

Thursday 15 October — Treasury September central government budget (11:00; August +12.9 billion lira). CBRT weekly reserve, securities and money-and-banking statistics (14:30). US September PPI (consensus 0.5% monthly), retail sales (0.3%; previous 1.2%), weekly jobless claims (195,000) and the Philadelphia Fed index — all at 15:30 Türkiye time. EIA oil inventories (19:00; will show the Isaias effect). The Fed's Hammack (23:30). G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Bangkok. The EU Leaders' Summit opens in Brussels (15-16 October). UK August GDP (09:00). Australian employment. Astor Enerji and Ebebek dividend payments. Starknet token unlock. Earnings: TSMC (09:00), Charles Schwab, US Bancorp, PNC, BNY, Prologis; after the close, Alcoa and J.B. Hunt.

Friday 16 October — S&P Global Ratings review of Türkiye (BB-/stable; after the market close). TurkStat September housing sales (10:00; previous 127,410, -14.7% annually). CBRT October Survey of Market Participants and the house price index. Fed Chair Warsh with IMF Managing Director Georgieva in Bangkok (06:30). US import prices (15:30), September industrial production (16:15), Baker Hughes rig count. Euro area final September CPI. BoE Governor Bailey speaks. Gübre Fabrikaları dividend payment. Arbitrum token unlock. Earnings: Travelers, Citizens Financial, M&T, Regions, Truist.

Further ahead — 19 October China third-quarter GDP and Ereğli earnings. 20 October Netflix earnings. 22 October CBRT rate meeting (14:00; median expectation a 100 basis point cut to 36%). 23 October Scope Ratings Türkiye. 25 October Brazil's runoff. 27-28 October FOMC. 28 October BIST half day, 29 October closed; UK Autumn Budget. 29-30 October Bank of Japan. 30 October the end of the CMB's margin trading flexibility. 1 November OPEC+. 3 November US midterm elections. 13 November Capital Intelligence Türkiye.

Five Things to Watch

1 US CPI: the headline is energy, the surprise would be in core. The consensus for Wednesday is a 0.6% monthly rise, the largest of 2026; but almost all of it comes from fuel and energy, and the market knows it. What matters is core: 0.2% is expected, and a reading of 0.3% or above would effectively lock in the "one more hike by year end" line from the Fed minutes for the December meeting and carry the 10-year back into the 5.3-5.36% band. A reading of 0.2% or below strengthens the Waller line that "hikes do not have to come consecutively" and reinforces the case for a hold in October. It will be read alongside Thursday's PPI (consensus 0.5%) and Michigan's one-year inflation expectation of 4.7%. For gold, Bitcoin and emerging market currencies this is the week's single directional data point.

2 The S&P decision: an affirmation is expected, the language will be read. The base case is that S&P affirms Türkiye at BB- with a stable outlook; the analyst said plainly on 2 October that the agency saw no pressure on the rating if the fund crisis stayed isolated. What to watch is how the report treats three subjects: whether the fund crisis still fits the definition of "isolated" (after the trustee appointment and the bill), the effect on the external vulnerability assessment of reserve losses exceeding $21 billion in six weeks, and how inflation falling below 30% is read in terms of confidence in the disinflation programme. A move to a positive outlook is unlikely but not impossible; even if the stable outlook is kept, the tone of the text will shape how foreign investors view lira assets before the 22 October meeting. Because the decision comes after the close, the first reaction will be seen on Monday 19 October.

3 Balance of payments and foreign flows: the external picture before the rate meeting. A $3.5 billion surplus is expected for the August current account on Tuesday — the peak of the tourism season, and a month in which energy imports had not yet fully reflected the diesel crisis. Thursday's CBRT data for the week of 9 October answers the more current question: after the inflation surprise, did foreign investors return to the domestic government bonds they had been selling for three weeks? Outflows exceeded $1 billion over those three weeks; a return to buying in a week when a rate cut is being priced would be the strongest signal easing the central bank's hand. On reserves, watch whether gross reserves keep falling below $167.4 billion and where net reserves excluding swaps go from $37.9 billion. If residents' FX deposits keep rising, the debate over "the cost of currency stability" carries into the rate meeting.

4 The fund liquidation bill: is the payment timetable becoming clear? The bill to be debated in the Plan and Budget Committee on Wednesday is the legal framework for the crisis moving from "digestion" to "resolution." Four elements to watch: the definition of an affected investor and whether the 1 million lira interim payment criterion enters the law; the source of payment (the TMSF pool, seized assets, restitution from the 187.65 billion lira list of "early exits"); the sale timetable for the shares in fund portfolios — a fast sale means short-term supply pressure, a slow one means prolonged uncertainty; and the provisions on the CMB's remit. Alongside the committee session, the three concrete indicators of normalisation are the actual start of interim payments in the Tera, Pusula, Atlas and Hedef funds, the number of shares under VBTS measures falling below 10, and an end to the daily 5-7% declines in the leasing and factoring index.

5 Bank earnings and TSMC: two different stress tests. The season that opens on Tuesday with JPMorgan, Goldman, Wells Fargo and Citi covers the first quarter in which the Fed entered a hiking cycle and the 10-year cleared 5%. Net interest income is expected to rise ($26.9 billion for JPMorgan), but unrealised losses in securities portfolios, commercial real estate provisions and rising deposit costs could cap margins; earnings growth for the financial sector is expected at only 3%. TSMC on Thursday answers a different question: after the OpenAI revenue debate, how AI chip demand is reflected in fourth-quarter and 2027 guidance. September revenue up 54.6% and gross margin guidance of 65-67% are a strong base; but the market is no longer pricing growth, it is pricing the change in the rate of growth. ASML's order numbers on Wednesday and the regional AI investment anecdotes in the Beige Book will complete the same picture.

Technical Picture

SPY (S&P 500 ETF) — Last close $778.57 (9 October); +1.16% on the week, +2.12% on the month, +3.13% over three months, +16% over a year. The model summary is dated 25 August and so is markedly stale; at that date $779.37 was defined as key resistance and $760.40 as support. At Friday's close the price sits 80 cents from that resistance, and it traded in record territory intraday on Tuesday. A weekly close above 779.37 would read as the 22-week CHOPPY regime resolving to the upside with strengthening momentum; a post-CPI close below 760.40 would show a return inside the band and a failed attempt at the record. Weekly volatility is low at 8.4% and the worst day was -0.42%: with bond yields at their highest since 2002, equity volatility staying this low points to a continuing disconnect between the two markets.

QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) — In the model summary dated 28 September, spot was $736.53, key resistance $745.45, the all-time high $748.65 and support $734.58. The Nasdaq's record closes on Monday and Tuesday suggest the price tested 745.45, while Thursday's 1.25% fall points to a pullback from that zone. A close above 745.45 strengthens momentum towards the 748.65 peak; a close below 734.58 invalidates the neutral-positive thesis. The regime has been CHOPPY for 24 weeks and ADX at 13.5 shows weak trend strength; the CNN Fear and Greed index was in "fear" territory at 34. The DAAD ETF engine's buy signal in SQQQ this week shows the model pricing a short-term pullback on the technology side; the TSMC and ASML results are where that read gets tested.

Gold (XAU/USD) — $4,195.80 as of 10 October; +1.41% on the week, -2.8% on the month, +2.05% over three months, +4.26% over a year. The model summary dated 28 September flagged $4,023.50 as key support and $4,165.68 as resistance; the price cleared 4,165.68 this week, meeting the model's condition that "October seasonality and a continuing QUIET regime strengthen the upside scenario." RSI's exit from oversold territory (28) and Friday's best day of +1.53% suggest the technical bounce has begun; but the price is still well below the 200-day average ($4,416) and the dollar index is near an 18-month high. If it holds above 4,165, $4,300 is the first target zone to watch; a return below 4,165 after Wednesday's CPI would put the 4,023.50-3,996 support band back in play. Weekly volatility at 17.1% is double that of the equity market.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) — $83,086 as of 11 October; -3.98% on the week, +7.59% on the month, +33.29% over three months, -24.99% over a year. The model summary dated 26 September flagged $87,395.67 as key resistance and $82,814 as the short-term downside trigger. Thursday's fall to $80.4K broke that trigger on a closing basis, but Friday and the weekend brought the price back to the $82.6-83.1K band — the break, in other words, is not yet confirmed. The maximum weekly drawdown was 5.5% and volatility at 20.9% the highest of the three assets. A weekly close above 82,814 reads as the band holding, with 87,396 resistance back in play; persistence below that level opens the downside scenario towards the $80K psychological support and then the 200-day average ($71,015). The DAAD Crypto buy signal dated 17 September is still active with a stop at $80,109 — Thursday's low came within $300 of it. October seasonality (an average of +16%) has not yet worked; a turn in ETF flows and the CPI print are the week's decisive factors.

BIST 100 — The close at 12,265.98 points is almost identical to last week's 12,270; the intraweek band ran from 12,039 to 12,529. Monday's 12,444 and the intraday peak of 12,529 were given back, while Wednesday's low of 12,123 held 1.6% above the crisis low of 11,926 on 30 September. The critical technical levels: below, the 12,100-12,000 band (Wednesday's low and the psychological level), then the 11,926-11,947 crisis low; above, 12,400-12,500 (Monday's peak) and 12,888 carried over from last week (the 18 September close). Clearing 12,500 on rising volume would read as a base having formed under the three-week decline and a recovery beginning towards 12,888; a close below 12,000 would put a retest of the crisis low back on the table. Weekly trading volume ran between 105 and 118 billion lira a day, normalised relative to the crisis weeks; an end to selling pressure in the holding and factoring indices is the precondition for the turn to broaden. In the signal scan the BIST mean reversion engine produced a buy signal for BİM (entry 402.75, target 467.14, stop 370.55 lira); the 22 October rate meeting and Friday's S&P decision are the two external catalysts that will decide which way the index breaks its band.

Closing

The week just gone was the fourth week of the crisis and the first in which Borsa Istanbul did not fall and macro data surprised in the market's favour. Inflation falling below 30% moved the rate cut debate for 22 October from "will there be one" to "how large"; but more than half of that surprise is a seasonal food effect, the cost pressure from diesel and energy is still in the pipeline, and gross reserves have fallen $21 billion in six weeks. The fund investigation kept growing in scale — a trustee, a 187 billion lira list, a bill — but the number of shares under VBTS measures falling from 40 to 10, and volumes normalising, show the market mechanism beginning to work. Abroad, two markets came apart: bonds saw their highest yields since 2002 while equities set records. Strong auction demand has made that disconnect sustainable for now; but the "one more hike" line in the Fed minutes and the 4.7% inflation expectation in the Michigan survey are reminders that it is early to expect the long end to ease durably.

The equation for the week ahead is clear: the core component of Wednesday's US CPI will set the pace of the Fed cycle and therefore the direction of gold, Bitcoin and emerging market assets; Friday's S&P report on Türkiye will show whether the fund crisis counts as "isolated" in foreign eyes and what external ground the 22 October rate meeting will be approached on. In between, Tuesday's balance of payments, Wednesday's bill and Thursday's foreign flow data will complete the picture of the domestic balance for lira assets. The US bank results and TSMC are two different stress tests: one measures the cost of 5% rates in the financial system, the other whether AI spending is converting into revenue. For the BIST 100, which way the 12,000-12,500 band breaks depends on those external catalysts; the reliable signal of normalisation, once again, should be sought not in the index level but in an end to selling in the holding and factoring indices and in foreign investors returning to domestic government bonds.

Methodology note: In this issue, asset-level news flow (`get_asset_news`) for SPY and QQQ returned data 44 and 16 days old respectively and was not used; web news flow was used instead. The data dates of the model summaries in the Technical Picture are given in parentheses; the SPY summary (25 August) is markedly stale and was used only as a level reference. BIST index, currency and commodity closes are taken from web sources; Friday's closes for the BIST 30 and BIST All, and the weekly changes in the Holding and Financials indices, could not be confirmed and are therefore described only qualitatively. The weekly changes in the Banking and Industrials indices come from a single source. The two- and 10-year lira bond yields are Thursday closes. Bitcoin's weekly change has been reported between -2.3% (Friday to Friday) and -4.5% (from the intraweek high) depending on the measurement window; the model data gives -3.98%. The Riyadh attack and the "energy ceasefire" statement are weekend developments and are not reflected in Friday's closes.

This bulletin is not investment advice; it is a summary of data.