Macro Week Ahead: A fund crisis shakes the market as the Fed hikes for the first time since 2023

Good Sunday to you all,

Last week was the harshest of 2026 for Borsa İstanbul, and this time the trigger came from inside rather than abroad. Statements that some Pusula Portföy funds had defaulted, the investigation that then widened to the Tera group, the CMB's decision to place 131 funds belonging to seven portfolio management companies into liquidation, and the closure to trading of a fund pool worth roughly 800–900 billion lira drove the BIST 100 down 8.18% from Monday to Friday. On Wednesday a decline of more than 6% tripped the circuit breaker; the index fell as far as 12,817 intraday and closed at 13,122, down 5.54%. Thursday's 2.95% recovery met fresh selling on Friday, and the week finished at 13,284.42. Minister Şimşek said there was "no generalised systemic risk", the CBRT signalled that "any additional measure will be taken" and sold around $5 billion in a single day, and the banking regulator exempted shares banks bought back after 16 September from their capital calculation. In other words, the authorities deployed a rapid set of measures — but the market's confidence in them has yet to show up in prices.

Globally, monetary policy reached a turning point. The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023, taking the policy rate to 3.75–4.00%; Chair Warsh said inflation was "too high and has been for too long", and the dot plot showed 16 of 18 members expecting at least one more hike this year. The BoJ moved to its highest rate in 31 years while the BoE held. The US 10-year yield tested 5.04%, a level unseen since 2007. This week the data calendar is light but the event calendar is full: the Trump–Xi summit at the White House on 24 September, ten Fed speakers, global PMIs on Wednesday and Michigan sentiment on Friday. At home, all eyes are on a single question: how long will liquidation selling last, and what will the authorities do if a second wave arrives?

Macroeconomics · Geopolitics · Global

1 The fund crisis: what happened, and what was done? The BIST 100 had already fallen about 4% in the week's first two sessions; Tuesday's disclosure of defaults in some Pusula Portföy funds and Wednesday's claim that Minister Şimşek would "make a statement on the market and the funds" accelerated the selling. The minister said nothing on the subject in his live appearance, but the market had already priced the worst. In the same week the CMB closed all TEFAS funds of seven portfolio management companies to trading, placed 131 funds into liquidation, and appointed İş Bankası and Ziraat Bankası to run the process. A regulation on manipulation in funds was announced and access blocks were imposed on manipulative market posts on social media. Emre Alkin and Erkan Kilimci left the Tera board, Emre Tezmen and Bülent Uygun were barred from leaving the country, detention orders for Pusula and Tera executives were issued over the weekend, and Namık Kemal Gökalp resigned from Hedef Holding. This week's critical question is how fast, and through what mechanism, the equities held in the liquidated funds reach the market.

2 The CBRT's currency defence and reserves. According to a Reuters calculation based on bankers' estimates, the CBRT sold $5–5.2 billion on Wednesday, the crisis day. Even so, USD/TRY ended the week 0.52% higher at 48.76; EUR/TRY fell 0.91% as the euro-dollar parity eased. Reserve data for the week of 11 September had already shown a $5.5 billion drop, taking total reserves to $178.7 billion — gross FX of $68.4 billion and gold of $110.3 billion. The figures for the week of 18 September, due on Thursday 24 September, will show the true scale of the intervention. Mutual funds ended the week down 2.57% on average and pension funds down 1.74%; money market funds, up 0.65%, were the only category in the black. The CBRT's next rate-setting meeting is on 22 October; until then liquidity management and swap channels will be the main tools.

3 The Fed's first hike since 2023. The FOMC voted unanimously for a 25 basis point increase, taking the rate to 3.75–4.00%. The statement stressed that economic activity was expanding at a "solid pace" and that productivity was strong; the 2026 inflation forecast was raised from 3.6% to 3.7% while 2027 was held at 2.3%. In the dot plot, 16 of 18 members see at least one more hike this year; for 2027, eight favour a hike, six no change and four a cut. Futures markets price the probability of two hikes by year-end at around 42%. At the press conference Warsh said the summer's inflation data showed "no meaningful improvement in the underlying trend". President Trump responded by calling for rates to be cut to 1% or below; the Fed–White House tension returns to the stage this week with ten Fed speakers.

4 Bond yields at their highest since 2007. The US 10-year yield touched 5.04% during the week and closed at around 5%. That is an important threshold for equity valuations: higher bond yields raise the discount rate applied to growth stocks and strengthen the "bonds over equities" preference. The dollar index rose 1% on the week to 100.2, weighing on both emerging market currencies and gold. Friday's "triple witching" futures expiry added volatility; the S&P 500 finished the week almost flat at −0.08%, the Dow Jones down 1.69% and the Nasdaq up 0.72%. Concern that AI companies may slow the pace of technology development drove selective selling in tech.

5 Oil is above $100 but falling. November Brent ended the week down 1.4% at $103.2, with an intraday drop of as much as 3.8% on Friday. Behind the easing lie China's message to Iran, at Saudi Arabia's request, to "limit Houthi attacks", and work on alternative shipping routes out of the Middle East. Supply remains fragile, however: three pump stations serving the Saudi East–West pipeline were damaged in last week's attack and the repair timetable is unclear, while Saudi–Houthi exchanges continued on Thursday. For Türkiye, oil above $100 means pressure through both the current account and the inflation channel; watch for another fuel price adjustment this week.

6 The BoJ hiked, the BoE waited, Europe turned hawkish. The Bank of Japan raised its rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest in 31 years; the 7–2 vote, short of unanimity, sent the yen lower. The Bank of England held at 3.75% but three of nine members wanted a hike; Bailey said tightening might be needed if the Middle East conflict drags on. Euro area August CPI came in at 3.2% year-on-year, slightly below expectations. Trump's tariff threat in response to the EU–Canada "joint membership" debate weighed on European equities: the DAX fell 1.03%, the CAC 40 1.40% and the MIB 1.84%, while the FTSE 100 was flat. In Asia the Nikkei rose 1.57% and Shanghai 0.61%; Chinese unemployment came in above expectations at 5.3%, and the decline in foreign investment continues.

7 Geopolitics: Iran–US, Saudi–Houthi and Bank Mellat. The main source of global inflation is still the Iran-driven energy shock, and the Fed is known to have cited it in justifying its hike. On the Turkish side, the week's notable step was the withdrawal of the Iranian lender Bank Mellat's licence to operate in Türkiye — a sanctions-compliance item international rating agencies follow. MSCI, meanwhile, pointed to "concrete progress" for Türkiye ahead of its annual market classification review in November; how the fund crisis and the market interventions feed into that review is a question for the weeks ahead. S&P's review of Türkiye's rating falls on 16 October and Scope's on 23 October.

8 Crypto decoupled. Bitcoin ended the week 4.9% higher at $81,100, with a one-month return of 11% and three-month return of 28%. With equities and gold flat to negative, crypto's rise suggests a demand channel independent of the liquidity squeeze in traditional markets; the crypto sentiment index sits at 71, in "Greed" territory. That said, a one-year return still at −30% shows this rally is a recovery from the 2025 peaks. The possibility that some of the investor money frozen by Türkiye's fund crisis rotates into crypto can be tracked in lira-denominated crypto volumes in the coming weeks.

Sectors

1 Leasing and factoring: the crisis epicentre. The sector index fell 9.74% on Wednesday and 9.41% on Friday, the sharpest faller of the week, with shares trading limit-down in three sessions. Destek Finans stood out among the names leading the decline. The risk that liquidation selling continues this week is high in the low-liquidity financial stocks where fund portfolios are concentrated; volume and depth data at the individual stock level will be more informative than the index itself.

2 Banking: took the first wave, then held on Friday. The banking index fell 6.38% on Wednesday, but on Friday banks lost only 0.55% while the broad index fell 1.67%. The regulator's decision to exempt buyback shares from capital calculations increased banks' capacity to support their own stock. Akbank and Yapı Kredi were among the most heavily traded names. Banks' direct exposure to the fund crisis looks limited; their exposure to portfolio management companies and group entities through the credit channel is what to look for in balance sheet notes.

3 Holding companies: the second wave arrived on Friday. The holding index fell 6.48% on Wednesday and 4.10% on Friday; that Friday divergence showed the selling rotating from banks into holdings. Koç Holding was among the five most traded stocks. Periods when holding discounts widen have historically opened long-term valuation debates; but that debate is premature until the duration of liquidation selling is known.

4 Defensive positions: insurance and mining. Insurance was the only sector index in the black on Friday (+0.41%), and mining opened higher (+0.40%). Gold's rise to $4,378 and the weaker lira support mining shares. Chemicals, up 34% over the past month, was the standout group in the pre-crisis period; whether it faces profit-taking this week is worth watching.

Companies

1 Tera, Pusula, Hedef Holding: the investigation timetable. Emre Tezmen stepped down from his role at Pusula, and Prof. Emre Alkin and former CBRT deputy governor Erkan Kilimci resigned from the Tera board. On Saturday detention orders were issued for Tezmen and the Alkin brothers; a fund board chairman was arrested, and the assets of executives and owners were seized. At Hedef Holding, Namık Kemal Gökalp resigned from all positions. This week, disclosures from companies tied to these groups and any trustee or precautionary rulings will be the main source of stock-level volatility.

2 The liquidation mechanism: İş Bankası and Ziraat. The CMB handed the liquidation of 131 funds to İş Bankası and Ziraat Bankası. When fund investors will get their money back, and how quickly the equities reach the market, remain unclear; headlines along the lines of "the funds want to pay, the authorities will not allow it" capture that uncertainty. The most benign scenario for the market is for shares to be sold in blocks or under a phased programme; the worst is forced selling in the open market.

3 Akbank, THY, Tüpraş, Koç Holding, Yapı Kredi: the volume leaders. These were the five most traded stocks on Friday; Takasbank data on which names foreign investors chose during the crisis week will be clear on Tuesday. The publication of BofA's Borsa İstanbul buy-sell list will also show where institutional interest is concentrated.

4 Dividends and IPOs. Six companies will pay dividends in the coming week; in a crisis environment, cash dividends stand out as a support for share prices. On the IPO side, no new approvals are expected as the CMB's agenda has shifted to the fund crisis; the existing IPO calendar is effectively on hold.

5 The US earnings calendar. This week brings AutoZone (Tuesday), Paychex, Cintas and General Mills (Wednesday), and Darden and Costco (Thursday, after the close). Costco's results are a bellwether for the resilience of the US consumer amid rate hikes and high inflation; in a month when Michigan sentiment collapsed to 47.8, its retail commentary will be read closely. The following week brings Micron (30 September) and Nike (1 October).

Week Ahead: Liquidation week and summit risk

The Turkish leg of this week is locked onto a single theme: how the fund liquidation feeds through to the market. The data calendar is light (real sector confidence and capacity utilisation on Monday, consumer confidence on Tuesday), so prices will move on news flow rather than data. Additional measures from the authorities — particularly a framework for spreading liquidation sales over time — are what the market most wants to see. Thursday's CBRT reserve data will formalise how much FX was sold during the crisis week. Globally, the Trump–Xi summit on 24 September and ten Fed speakers stand out; PMI and Michigan data will take the economy's pulse after the hike.

The Week's Calendar

Monday 21 September — CBRT real sector confidence index and capacity utilisation rate (10:00). The BIST open: weekend detention orders and statements on the liquidation process will be priced in. In the US, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks (13:30 Istanbul time).

Tuesday 22 September — TurkStat consumer confidence index (10:00). Takasbank foreign investor data. In the US, remarks from Williams (17:05), Jefferson (17:20) and Barkin (20:00); Richmond Fed manufacturing index. AutoZone earnings.

Wednesday 23 September — Euro area, German and UK flash PMIs (10:30–11:30). US S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs (16:45). Fed Governor Barr speaks. Paychex, Cintas and General Mills earnings.

Thursday 24 September — Trump–Xi summit at the White House (time to be confirmed). CBRT weekly reserves and money and banking statistics (14:30). US weekly jobless claims (15:30), new home sales (17:00). Remarks from Williams, Hammack and Paulson. German Ifo. Darden and Costco earnings. Japan manufacturing PMI.

Friday 25 September — US August durable goods orders (15:30), final Michigan consumer sentiment (17:00). German GfK consumer confidence. Hammack speaks (21:00).

Note: there are no market holidays in the US or Türkiye this week. The next CBRT rate meeting is on 22 October and S&P's review of Türkiye falls on 16 October.

Five Things to Watch

1 The pace and mechanism of liquidation selling. Whether the shares in the liquidation run by İş Bankası and Ziraat are sold in blocks or on the open market is the single most critical variable for the BIST's direction this week. The band between Wednesday's low of 12,817 and Thursday's high of 13,700 is the range in which the market has priced the uncertainty. A framework from the CMB setting out the liquidation timetable would reduce it.

2 CBRT reserves and the currency. Thursday's 14:30 release covering the week of 18 September will show how Wednesday's $5 billion intervention hit reserves. USD/TRY closed the week at 48.76; the CBRT's determination to hold the currency in this band will be read through the swap and FX sales data. Should reserves fall below $175 billion, the market may open a debate about the cost.

3 The Trump–Xi summit. The meeting planned for 24 September at the White House is the main determinant of global risk appetite, with trade tariffs and Iran on the agenda. A positive outcome could bring easing in oil and bond yields; an inconclusive or tense summit would keep the dollar index above 100 and increase pressure on emerging markets. Expectations are being kept low, which leaves room for a positive surprise.

4 Fed speakers and bond yields. Among the ten appearances, Williams's three separate outings and Jefferson's Tuesday remarks stand out. The market prices one more hike by year-end; the probability of a second is 42%. If the US 10-year yield stays above 5%, the rotation from equities into bonds accelerates; an easing below 4.85% would support risk appetite.

5 PMIs and Michigan: the first pulse after the hike. Wednesday's global PMIs will show, in September data, what oil above $100 is doing to manufacturing. Friday's final Michigan reading will say, through the direction of the revision to the preliminary 47.8, whether consumer psychology has found a floor; the one-year inflation expectation stands at 4.6%, its highest since June. These two are the data on which the Fed's "one more hike" scenario is tested.

Technical Picture

BIST 100: weekly close 13,284. The levels analysts gave on Friday were 13,200 and 13,100 as support, 13,400 and 13,500 as resistance. Wednesday's intraday low of 12,817 is the worst case the crisis has priced so far; a close below it would signal a fresh wave of selling. Sustained trade above 13,500 would put the 13,700–13,900 band back in view, with 14,000 as psychological resistance. On volume, the crisis day saw 262 billion lira and Friday 171 billion; a fall below 150 billion could indicate selling pressure easing.

S&P 500 (SPY, data dated 25 August, stale): the system reads a CHOPPY regime and defines a sideways band between the 779.37 record resistance and 760.4 support; the latest close of 761.69 sits at the lower end. A close below 760 increases downside pressure; a close above 779 strengthens momentum. September's seasonal average of −2.92% makes it the weakest month of the year.

Nasdaq 100 (QQQ, 15 September): a neutral view, at the bottom of the 21-day range (5.8%), MACD negative, RSI 44. The critical level is 702.70: a close below it accelerates the three-month decline; a close above 718.5 could start the October seasonal rally. The SMA200 at 661 is long-term support. Friday's spot of 704.54 sits very close to support.

Gold (XAU/USD, 14 September): the system gave a sell-leaning view with 4,283 support and 4,367 resistance; the week's close of 4,378 edged just above that resistance. Holding above this level would reactivate 4,415 and the SMA20; a close below 4,283 would put 4,202 to the test. COT data show money managers heavily long, which may cap upside moves. October's seasonal average is +2.93%.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD, 19 September): buy-leaning, 7/10 potential, 8/10 confidence. The critical level is 81,478: a close above it accelerates momentum, while a close below 79,523 means the loss of short-term support. The one-month range is 74,968–82,300 with price at the top end, touching the upper Bollinger band (81,694). October's historical average of +16.2% makes it the strongest month of the year, though a QUIET regime carries the risk of a sharp move in either direction once the squeeze resolves.

USD/TRY: weekly close 48.76, up 0.52% on the week. The CBRT appears to have held the rate below 49 with $5 billion of sales during the crisis week; 49.00 is psychological resistance and should be watched alongside the reserve data.

Closing

Last week was a stress test for Turkish markets, and the result is not yet in. The authorities moved fast: funds were closed, a liquidation mechanism was set up, the currency was defended, banks were given buyback flexibility and the investigation widened. But the market is waiting less for the measures themselves than for the timetable of their implementation. Spreading liquidation sales over time and binding them to a transparent framework is this week's most benign scenario; forced selling on the open market is the worst. The difference between the two will determine which end of the 12,800–13,700 band the BIST 100 closes nearest.

Globally the picture is clearer but less comforting: the Fed has hiked, the BoJ has hiked, the BoE is debating a hike, the US 10-year is at 5% and oil is above $100. In that environment, capital flows to emerging markets are already harder to come by — and Türkiye has to manage a home-grown crisis of confidence on top. The Trump–Xi summit and the Fed speakers will set the week's global direction; but for Borsa İstanbul, what really matters is the steps the CMB and the CBRT take this week.

This bulletin is not investment advice; it is a summary of data.

Methodology note: this issue was prepared in an automated run. The market and news figures come from web research; the technical levels are taken from the SPY, QQQ, XAU/USD and BTC/USD asset summaries (data dates in parentheses) and from web sources, and the SPY summary is stale as it is dated 25 August. The QQQ and SPY levels were reconfirmed against the Market Analysis MCP in the later run that produced this English edition. Turkish bond yields and the weekly aggregate performance of the sector indices could not be confirmed and were therefore left out. The time of the Trump–Xi summit and the names of the six dividend-paying companies were not clear in the sources and were left as "expected".